What does a BRICS-affiliated Bangladesh mean?

Bangladesh is now in crisis both economically and politically. The Western bloc and the EU on one side and the potential BRICS alliance of China and Russia on the other. Since the BRICS have big plans like de-dollarization and introduction of common currency; And due to the involvement of geopolitics, the US may be extremely unhappy with Dhaka's accession to BRICS. If Dhaka can properly manage this challenge, it will be able to achieve its own interests by participating in BRICS while maintaining trade and diplomatic relations with western countries. But of course, Bangladesh would make a grave mistake if it joined BRICS as a strategy to denigrate the West.

Bangladesh is getting various benefits including import-export, investment, remittance, higher education opportunities, immigration in relation with the western region. Amid the global economic recession, mainly the US and EU markets have saved Bangladesh's export earnings. According to Bangladesh Bank and Export Development Bureau (EPB) data for the fiscal year 2021-22, the destination of 20 percent of the country's total merchandise exports is the United States. About 50 percent of total product exports are destined for the EU. 70 percent of Bangladesh's exports go to the United States and its allied countries.

On the other hand, BRICS countries China and India supply almost half of Bangladesh's total imports, which are many times more than exports. As a result, the country's trade deficit has to be met by exports and repatriation income, foreign investment and loans to the United States. The United States is also at the top in terms of foreign direct investment. Almost all international organizations of the world such as the United Nations, IMF, World Bank, FAO etc. are directly and indirectly under the control of the United States. As a result, it will not be possible to get loans from various organizations and save from the blockade without the United States. 

Moreover, the world's second largest contingent of security personnel from Bangladesh goes to UN missions, earning Bangladesh a large amount of foreign exchange. Bangladesh will be deprived of this benefit if it goes against the United States.

However, joining BRICS is expected to bring several important benefits to Bangladesh. Notable among them is that after becoming a member of the BRICS alliance, Bangladesh will get the benefit of taking loans in various sectors, in this case the loan interest rate will also be lower. Relations with the members of the BRICS alliance will increase, in this case trade and investment with the member countries will increase. Bangladesh's global position will be stronger if it joins the BRICS alliance, Bangladesh can take advantage in this case if an alternative currency or an alternative trade system is introduced in the BRICS countries in the future. BRICS may be an institution like IMF or World Bank in the future, in which case Bangladesh can get a large loan facility.

According to economists, Bangladesh's alliance with BRICS is the biggest advantage of Bangladesh's allies India, Russia and China. China and India are also neighbours. By forming an alliance with them, the possibility of increasing closeness and mutual cooperation with countries like Brazil and South Africa will also be created. So undoubtedly joining BRICS will be a very important step for Bangladesh.

It is mentionable that in 2008 BRICS was formed by Brazil, Russia, India and China. Later in 2010, South Africa joined. It was then renamed as BRICS. The journey of BRICS Bank started in 2015. So 'BRICS' is a powerful alliance of five large emerging economies - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. At present, BRICS countries have a total population of 3.42 billion and a total area of 40 million square kilometers, which is 42 percent of the world's total population and 30 percent of the total area.

Now BRICS is considering a separate diplomatic forum and development finance outside the Western-controlled global financial institutions. Basically the economic growth of these developing or newly industrialized countries is quite upward. Also, these countries have a lot of influence on regional and international events. So economists consider this alliance to be quite influential. According to India's research institute Observer Foundation, the BRICS alliance is a major power in the world today in terms of population, size and economic size.

The BRICS countries feel that the global economy is suffering due to the unilateral system of the Western world in violation of international law. Coercive measures such as embargo, boycott etc. have complicated the situation. BRICS therefore emphasized on promoting the use of local currencies in international trade and transactions among its members and trading partners. BRICS has already surpassed the G-7 economies in total contribution to global GDP.

According to World Trade Organization (WTO) sources, BRICS' contribution to global GDP in 2021 was 31.5 percent or equal to $26.03 trillion, while FDA flows and stocks were $355 billion during the same period. Their contribution to world trade is 9.3 trillion dollars which is 18 percent of total global trade. This equation assumes that the BRICS countries' contribution to global GDP will increase to 50 percent by 2030.

Therefore, it can be said, the possibility and reality of Bangladesh's achievement from BRICS: Based on the history of the dollar collapse movement, it can be said that it may not be easy to collapse the dominance of the dollar so quickly. Despite many similarities, the euro, the currency of the 20 eurozone countries, has managed to gain a 20 percent share of the dollarized global reserve currency (GRC) after a 23-year battle.

BRICS is a group of countries that have more differences than similarities. Countries are a cocktail of free market economies or capitalism, mixed economies and socialist economies with some democracies and autocracies. Most of these countries trade far more with the US and Western Europe than they do with themselves. Besides, mutual conflict between China and India over the border is permanent and is currently increasing manifold.

Russia is on the brink of self-destruction economically and financially. Brazil lags a decade behind in economic growth; South Africa was stuck in recession even before the corona pandemic. In addition, the BRICS countries lack the necessary level of confidence to create a currency effective enough to function as a GRC. Even China's economy is highly centralized and does not have a free, liquid and unregulated capital market to challenge the US dollar. On the other hand, China-India-Russia is blindly supporting Bangladesh against the establishment of humanity and democracy mainly for geopolitical reasons.

Basically, the relevance of BRICS for the countries of the developing world has increased after the Ukraine-Russia war. Bangladesh became relevant in BRICS in 2021, giving Bangladesh new membership in the NDB which opened up new opportunities in financing the country's development. Therefore, going to BRICS, a small country like Bangladesh has to move forward with a very prudence, efficiency, and neutral approach. Strategic participation, but at the same time strategic distance must be maintained.

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