The battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio have been called for President Trump, two states that analysts believe he must carry to reach 270 Electoral College votes.
Along with the Sunshine state, which has 29 electoral votes, the New York Times' "needle" is tracking two other states in the South that Trump must carry to have a good shot at winning the election, Georgia and North Carolina.
In Georgia, with a 1.1-point lead and 74% of the vote reported, the Times gives Trump an 76% chance of winning the state.
In North Carolina, with 95% of the votes counted, Trump is estimated to have a 1.2-point lead and a 86% chance of winning.
The Times analysis concludes that if Biden were to win all three states, a "blowout" Biden win is likely. If Trump loses one of the states, Trump would need the Midwest states to keep his chances alive.
If the president carries all three, which is now the Times' "best guess," either candidate could win and the outcome may not be known on Election Day.
But Trump is performing well in Pennsylvania, where he leads by nearly more than 14 points with 52% of the vote counted.
Prior to Election Day, establishment media predicted a landslide for Biden, with The Economist estimating the president's chance of winning was 3% and Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight giving him a 10% chance.
Fox News has called for Trump states he was expected to win, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina and four of Nebraska's five votes, giving him 148 total votes.
Biden, according to the Fox News team, has won California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Illinois, Virginia, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia and three of Maine's four votes, giving the former vice president 211 total votes.
However, CNN still has not called Virginia, which has 13 electoral votes.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, it could indicate how well he will do in Michigan and Wisconsin. Flipping the three states in 2016 from Democrat to Republican was the key to his victory over Hillary Clinton.
In Wisconsin, with 70% reporting, Trump leads 51.8% to 46.8%.
But Bloomberg reporter Saleha Mohsin said election officials in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania say they won't announce a winner tonight.
Wisconsin says there's no way they are announcing a winner tonight
Michigan needs until Friday
Pennsylvania isn't coming out anytime soon, either
Per officials in those states
— Saleha Mohsin (@SalehaMohsin) November 4, 2020
The Biden campaign believes Texas is in play, and both have regarded Arizona as competitive. Trump won both states in 2016.
In Texas, with 78% reporting, Trump leads 52% to 46.6%.
Biden leads in Arizona, with 74% reporting, 53.5% to 45.2%.
Fox News has called Arizona for Biden, but the White House is contesting the decision, arguing votes are still out in counties where Trump is expected to perform well.
Going into Election Day, the Trump campaign believed it had a shot at Minnesota and Nevada, two states it narrowly lost in 2016.
Biden, with 70% reporting, has a 10-point lead in Minnesota.
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