President Trump appears to be headed for victory in Florida, and he has taken the lead in Ohio, two states that analysts believe he must carry to reach 270 Electoral College votes.
With 93% of the vote counted, the New York Times estimates Trump, with a 3.1-point lead, has a greater than 95% chance of winning the Sunshine State's 29 electoral votes.
The Times' "needle" is tracking two other states in the South that Trump must carry to have a good shot at winning the election, Georgia and North Carolina.
In Georgia, with a 2-point lead and 59% of the vote reported, the Times gives Trump an 81% chance of winning the state.
In North Carolina, with 93% of the votes counted, Trump is estimated to have a 1.7-point lead and a greater than 94% chance of winning.
The Times analysis concludes that if Biden were to win all three states, a "blowout" Biden win is likely. If Trump loses one of the states, Trump would need the Midwest states to keep his chances alive.
If the president carries all three, which is now the Times "best guess," either candidate could win and the outcome may not be known on Election Day.
Prior to Election Day, establishment media predicted a landslide for Biden, with The Economist estimating the president's chance of winning was 3% and Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight giving him a 10% chance.
In Ohio, which Trump won by 9 points in 2016, Biden held a 12-point lead with 49% of the vote counted. But Trump, with 69% of the vote in, now leads by 2 points.
In the key state of Pennsylvania, with 20 electoral votes, only 27% of the vote reported, Trump led 50.8% to 46.3%.
Fox News has called for Trump states he was expected to win, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina and four of Nebraska's five votes, giving him 148 total votes.
Biden, according to the Fox News team, has won California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Illinois, Virginia, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia and three of Maine's four votes, giving the former vice president 207 total votes.
However, CNN still has not called Virginia, which has 13 electoral votes.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, it could indicate how well he will do in Michigan and Wisconsin. Flipping the three states in 2016 from Democrat to Republican was the key to his victory over Hillary Clinton.
In Wisconsin, with 51% reporting, Trump leads 51.1% to 47.4%.
The Biden campaign believes Texas is in play, and both have regarded Arizona as competitive. Trump won both states in 2016.
In Texas, with 71% reporting, Trump leads 51.2% to 47.4%.
In Arizon, with 73% reporting, Biden leads 53.7% to 45%.
The Trump campaign believes it has a shot at Minnesota and Nevada, two states it narrowly lost in 2016.
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