Russian tanks
[Editor's note: This story originally was published by Real Clear Defense.]
By Ben Connable
Real Clear Defense
Russia’s inartfully veiled invasion of Ukraine is underway. Within days or hours—perhaps by the time this article is published—well over 100,000 Russian troops may be smashing their way through Ukraine’s heartland. Much hangs in the balance. One of Europe’s newest democracies may be destroyed. Thousands of Ukrainian civilians may be killed, and perhaps hundreds of thousands forced to flee their homes. If their military operation is successful, Russian leaders may decide they want to take more of Europe by force; President Putin has already laid that groundwork. Only one thing stands in the way of this outcome: Ukrainian will to fight.
There is almost no chance the Ukrainian armed forces can stave off a dedicated Russian attack. But if the Ukrainians have the will to do so, they can slow Russia’s advance by fighting from their trenches, mounting quick hit-and-run raids, blowing up roadways, ambushing vehicle columns, and even by taking lone potshots at Russian troops. They can force Russian tanks to move off roads and into muddy ground where they might become stuck. They can force Russian infantry to continually dismount and remount their vehicles, giving precious time to other Ukrainian units withdrawing or regrouping. Every Russian soldier killed or wounded will make it harder for Putin to sustain enthusiasm for the war back home.
Ukrainian soldiers and civilians-turned-insurgents can continue to grind away at the Russians once the invasion is complete. Indomitable in the attack, Russian troops become sitting ducks in occupation. As Americans discovered in Afghanistan and Iraq, it only takes a few hard-willed people—even civilians—to turn occupation into a quagmire. Russians are not immune to snipers and improvised explosive devices. Their will to fight can be weakened and even broken. If the Ukrainians fight hard enough during and after the invasion, they can force the Russians to retreat like the Afghans forced the Soviets to retreat in 1989.
So, will the Ukrainians fight? This is an open question. Interviews with Ukrainians don’t really provide an answer. Troops on the front lines worn down by years of dreary, dangerous trench duty have expressed mixed sentiments. But boredom and malaise—signs in-the-moment sentiment, not necessarily low will to fight—might transform into iron will at the sight of the first Russian armored vehicle moving towards their lines. Some civilians in Kharkiv, a city close to the Russian border, have stated that they are ready to fight. Others have expressed more interest in partygoing and Instagram. Even these Ukrainians might surprise us: self-proclaimed tough guys might run, and the club kids might turn out to be Ukrainian Che Guevaras.
Forecasting will to fight takes time and effort. It is too late for thoughtful forecasting. Only an all-out invasion will reveal Ukrainian will to fight. How can Western countries help the Ukrainians slow and then reverse the Russian invasion? Providing anti-tank and surface-to-air missiles will help slow the Russian advance and give the Ukrainians a boost in confidence. But these weapons will only make a difference if Ukrainian troops choose to stay in the fight to use them. Sanctions against Russia probably will not matter to Ukrainians fighting off Russian armored assaults. Helping now requires forecasting and then boosting Ukrainian will to fight during the occupation.
Here's one approach to forecasting will to fight that can be used to help prepare for the occupation. Other methods exist and should be applied to help triangulate the best ways to help the Ukrainians help themselves. Ukraine will lose this war, but with sufficient, enduring will to fight, it can win the peace by sending the Russians back across their border poorer for the adventure.
Dr. Ben Connable is a senior nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, the Director of Research at DT Institute, and adjunct professor of security studies at Georgetown University.
[Editor's note: This story originally was published by Real Clear Defense.]
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