President Donald J. Trump arrives on stage at the Protecting America's Seniors event Friday, Oct. 16, 2020, at the Caloosa Sound Convention Center & Amphitheater in Fort Myers, Florida. (Official White House photo by Shealah Craighead)
A pollster who got the presidential race in 2016 right has issued his forecast for 2020, and it's that President Trump will be re-elected.
But he's issued a "red flag" warning about Pennsylvania, since the state is ripe for fraud.
At PJMedia is a report on the results from Trafalgar Group, whose chief, Robert Calahy, also discussed the results in a podcast with National Review.
The forecast is that President trump will reach Electoral College totals of the upper 270s to 280s. Two hundred seventy is needed for the victory.
Cahaly said Trump will win battleground states of Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Texas, and probably Arizona.
"In Michigan, where senatorial candidate John James has a slight lead, Cahaly says that a combination of James’s strength, hatred for Gov. Whitmer’s COVID response and her job-killing Green New Deal, and the Trump economy will propel the president to a win there," he forecast.
Things are tighter in Wisconsin, and there's a red flag over Pennsylvania.
"I believe Pennsylvania to be the number one state that Trump could win and have stolen from him through voter fraud. Pennsylvania has had a lot of voter fraud over the years and giving people unsolicited absentee ballots is literally like giving voter fraud operations steroids. I think it’s the state he’s most likely to win and not get the votes from," he said.
The predictions carry weight because the company was able to predict Trump victories in Michigan and Pennsylvania four years ago, and, in fact, was the only outfit to find Trump ahead in Michigan that year.
"The Trafalgar CEO says conservative voters are less likely, by a five-to-one margin, to participate in polls than progressives – worse than even in 2016. He said that reluctance by conservatives to take polls has moved from four conservatives for every progressive to 5:1 in just the past few weeks," the report explained.
"People who hate Trump are glad to tell that to anyone, especially a pollster. That’s why he believes so many of the other polls showing a clear Biden win are wrong."
There's also a "social desirability bias," which essentially is when respondents tell pollsters the politically correct answers, that could be affecting the poll results by as much as eight points, Cahaly said.
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