The South Portico of the White House is seen lit up in red, white and blue lights during the Fourth of July Celebration, Sunday, July 4, 2021, as Joe Biden, Jill Biden and members of their family watch fireworks from the Blue Room Balcony. (Official White House photo by Erin Scott)
A "bias" monitor in America rates the Hoover Institution, linked to Stanford, as only slightly to the conservative side of "least biased" because it publishes "factual information" but occasionally uses "loaded words."
And now one of its senior fellows has concluded that President Donald Trump is the one individual "mostly likely" to take back the White House in 2024.
A report from Just the News explains that one of the factors considered is that the Democrats' "lawfare" against him, a series of lawsuits, court cases and the like, already is backfiring, and actually gaining Trump more support.
"A second Trump act is not just possible. It's fast becoming my base case," explained historian and Hoover Institute senior fellow Niall Ferguson.
His comments came in a recent Spectator posting.
Several factors were included in his calculations.
He said Democrats are of the belief that Joe Biden always will beat Trump – because he's not "Trump" – and Trump's legal fights will tank his campaign.
"Yet the campaign of lawfare against Trump has already started to backfire," he explained.
He cited candidates in other countries who have come back to win while facing legal headwinds.
"If [Brazil President Liuz Inacio] Lula [de Silva] can come back from one-and-a-half years in jail to win, Trump may have little to worry about, as there isn’t the slightest chance of his being locked up between now and election day next year. Indeed, the perception that Democratic operatives are using the legal system for political ends will likely help him win votes," Ferguson wrote.
Further, he said, Republicans have historically elected their front-runner candidates in the primary to go on to the general election, which is a good sign for Trump as he is far ahead of all other candidates in hypothetical polls.
And the economy could be a Trump campaign talking point.
"[T]he lesson of history is clear – the Republican frontrunner usually wins the nomination, and a post-recession incumbent usually loses the presidential election," Ferguson wrote.
While Democrats argue that the nation hasn't technically reached "recession" circumstances, brought on by Biden's massive spending programs, Republicans point out that there already have been two successive quarters of negative economic "growth," meaning the nation already has reached recession status.
A report from Fox News pointed out that Trump clearly is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination at this point.
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The report said Ferguson concluded that Trump actually is thriving on the free publicity of the various Democrat agendas against him.
Ferguson noted even a recent civil case, now on appeal, in which Trump was found liable for sex abuse against a woman who couldn't remember what year she encountered Trump has given Trump a boost.
"Every column inch or minute of airtime his legal battles earn him is an inch or a minute less for his Republican rivals for the nomination," Ferguson said.
He also argued Trump is the "clear frontrunner" among the Republican field for 2024.
Ferguson said an economic downturn "does not need to be as severe as the Great Depression that destroyed Herbert Hoover's president. A plain vanilla recession will suffice."
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